Trump Signals 50/50 Chance for New U.S.–EU Trade Deal

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that there is a “50/50 chance” of striking a new trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, raising both hopes and concerns about the future of transatlantic economic relations.

Speaking at a business policy roundtable in New York, Trump stated that discussions between American and European negotiators had resumed and were progressing with what he called “cautious optimism.” However, he warned that serious disagreements remained, particularly on issues related to tariffs, digital trade, and regulatory alignment.

“We’re talking, and that’s important,” Trump said. “There’s a 50/50 chance we get a fair deal done. But it’s got to work for American workers and businesses.”

A renewed trade agreement between the U.S. and EU could have major implications for global commerce. Key sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, digital services, and agriculture could be significantly affected. European automakers are especially concerned about potential increases in U.S. tariffs, while American tech firms continue to raise alarms over Europe’s stringent data privacy laws and proposed digital taxes.

Markets reacted positively to the news, with both the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 seeing modest gains following Trump’s remarks. Business leaders have welcomed the renewed talks as a signal of improving trade diplomacy, though many remain cautious about the prospects of a finalized agreement in the near term.

“If a deal materializes, it would bring greater stability to supply chains and reduce geopolitical trade uncertainty,” said Olivia Marshall, Head of Global Strategy at Redwood Trade Analytics.

Trade analysts suggest that a successful agreement could help reset U.S.–EU relations after a series of trade disputes in previous years. However, they note that challenges remain, particularly around green subsidies, labor rights enforcement, and differing regulatory frameworks.

No official timeline for the negotiations has been announced, but sources familiar with the matter expect preliminary discussions to continue through the third quarter of 2025. A draft agreement may emerge by year-end if progress continues.

As the world’s two largest economies explore new trade terms, businesses across both sides of the Atlantic are watching closely, hoping for a deal that strengthens economic ties and ensures long-term growth.


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